Longhorns pull into Madison to take on Badgers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

12/23/2008 - Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Texas Longhorns hope to avenge a loss in their most recent outing as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison this evening.

Texas carried a six-game win streak into Saturday's clash with Michigan State, but that neutral-site affair resulted in a 67-63 setback. The Longhorns are now 9-2 overall, as their only other loss came by one point to Notre Dame. Texas has yet to play a true road game, and Madison is a difficult place at which to pick up a road victory.

Wisconsin, which is 9-2 overall as well, owns a perfect 6-0 mark at home. The Badgers are riding a three-game win streak that includes Saturday's 57-46 victory over Coppin State. Both losses have come against ranked foes, while most of the wins have come against rather weak competition.

Wisconsin has won four of the five previous meetings with Texas, including a 67-66 verdict versus the Longhorns last season.

Texas held a two-point lead over Michigan State at intermission on Saturday, but the Longhorns struggled mightily at the offensive end in the second half. They connected on only 8-of-22 field goal attempts over the final 20 minutes, including a 2-of-9 effort from three-point range. Texas finished the game with two more turnovers than assists and permitted the Spartans to shoot 50.9 percent from the floor. Gary Johnson was outstanding in defeat, as he connected on 8-of-12 field goal attempts off the bench en route to 20 points. Damion James provided 15 points and 10 rebounds, but A.J. Abrams was limited to eight points in 40 minutes of action. Abrams is the leading scorer for the 'Horns, as he is netting 19.7 ppg on the strength of his 45.1 percent efficiency from three-point range. James is the only other double-digit scorer on the roster, as he provides 14.1 ppg and 8.0 rpg.

Wisconsin is netting 66.4 ppg this season while limiting its opponents to 58.4 ppg. Marcus Landry leads the Badgers in scoring with 12.5 ppg on 51 percent shooting from the field, and he has more blocks (21) than the rest of the team combined (20). Trevon Hughes is posting 12.1 ppg for Wisconsin, which is getting 10.6 ppg from Jason Bohannon. Strong rebounding was key to the victory over Coppin State on Saturday, as the Badgers earned a 36-19 advantage on the boards, including 12-4 on the offensive glass. Remarkably, only four foul shots were attempted by both teams combined in that clash. Jon Leuer was the best player on the floor for the Badgers, as he netted 16 points in 21 minutes of action off the bench. Bohannon and Landry finished with 11 points apiece.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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